And here's the claim that really had me curious: Factoring in unreported rapes, about 6% of rapists will ever spend a day in jail.
Interesting stat. Let's see how they run their numbers:
If you run the numbers, you pretty well come out to around 6.5%. But man... something seems wrong here.
First, look at bullet point one: 60% of rapes/sexual assaults are not reported. To understand why it's a problem to casually group 'rape' and 'sexual assault' together, let's take a good look at the big list of sexual assault definitions on this site:
This runs quite the gamut, doesn't it? 'Being exposed to adult talk about specific sexual acts' and 'Being exposed to sexual name-calling' is grouped in with 'being involved in child prostitution and pornography' or 'being subjected to unnecessary or intrusive medical treatments'. So being called a slut or a cocksucker is categorized here right alongside your doctor fingering you while you're drugged.
Now, that's questionable enough on its own. But if the 60% statistic is being culled by filing rape and sexual assault under the same heading, noticing a 60% lack of report, and then assuming that 40% of rapes are going unreported... that's a shot in the dark. It'd be a little like counting the number of murders and assaults that go unreported, and then using that number to estimate the number of unreported murders. If the FBI/crime statistics are using a definition of 'sexual assault' equivalent to the site's, I'm going to get worried.
But there's something more unsettling going on here. Let's run the numbers.
Starting off with the poorly supported 40% reporting claim for rapes, we then see that 50.8% of these will result in arrest. Okay, that brings us to 20.32. 80% of those will be prosecuted - now we're at 16.256. 58% chance at conviction - okay, 9.429%. 69% chance at jail time gives us 6.51%. (Doing some rounding up here.) Seems solid, right? Math is math.
Here's the problem: not only is the information about unreported rapes, at least by the page's numbers, suspect... but the numbers, in order to be solid, require the unspoken assumption that 100% of all reported rapes are actual rapes, and that 100% of the 60% unreported claims of rape/sexual assaults are also legitimate.
That bears repeating: the numbers I just ran, in order to arrive at the claim that "only 6.5% of rapists will ever serve jail time", requires that 100% of all reported rapes are legitimate, such that if someone is found not guilty, then the state just let a rapist walk free.
I'm not going to comment more about that right now. I just want it to sink in, so anyone who finds this page can understand exactly what is going on with the statistic I just quoted, and why it may be a something to take with a grain of salt.