Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Lessons learned this election cycle

Pardon my lackluster presence, the few of you who read this blog. I've gotten wrapped up in other things lately. Such is life.

But I figure I'd swing by and reveal a few of the things I've learned this election cycle.
  • Political analysts and 'pundits', including statistical analysts, are almost entirely worthless. Their guesses about the future come across largely as shots in the dark or exercises in wishful thinking/amateur influence peddling, and they're able to get away with this with the full knowledge that a 99% abysmal track record won't make them unemployable. The 1% of the time they manage to guess their way into an accurate prediction, however, gets held up as a reason to regard them as an authority. A greater reason for complete skepticism of the media intelligentsia is harder to come across, though plenty of lesser reasons exist.

  • Most Christian leadership - whether conservative or (God forbid) liberal - cannot be trusted. They see themselves as important people whose main job is 'keep those hicks who listen to me in line', and one of the reasons they're increasingly hostile to Trump is because he accidentally revealed they have vastly less influence than they imagined they did. This goes for straight up 'conservative bloggers' as well. They will never forgive Trump for out-talking them, nor will they forgive their readers for failing to get in line behind them.

  • There's a good chance the GOP will cease to exist, come convention time. We may well be in one of those phases where one of the political parties simply ceases to exist in anything beyond shell form, and something new rises up from the ashes. Hell will probably break loose if this happens, since the result would be that very wealthy people will no longer have a clear idea of the rules of the American political game, and uncertainty is one thing that they hate more than anything.

  • Paraphrasing George Carlin: Some people believe that Ted Cruz is anti-establishment despite being endorsed by Romney, Jeb!, and having worked for George W. Bush. Some people believe that Donald Trump is the establishment because he's a billionaire who donated to politicians, despite his being universally hated by both the GOP 'leadership' and leftists everywhere. Some people think that Jesus Himself would demand open borders and free trade. Some people are real fucking stupid.

3 comments:

planks length said...

I'll begin by saying something that I will contradict later.

It would be a tragedy if we lost the GOP. The two party system has served us well since the Civil War. Sure, you have to take the good with the bad when saying something like that, but all in all it has been a force for stability and continuity (two things I personally value highly - I distrust "revolutions"). No matter what the to and fro swayings of the political climate, the foundations of our government remained strong. It is what enabled us to avoid an American version of the Bolshevik Revolution in the 1930s, gave us the unity to defeat fascism in the 1940s, and provided the structure to outlast the Soviets in the Cold War. All good things.

That said (and here comes the contradiction), I think we've already lost the GOP. I can't pin the exact date down, but it died sometime in the past 8 years. All we have today is a Terry Shiavo party, and we might as well pull the plug because the patient is already dead.

But the USA desperately needs two parties to survive in any recognizable form. If only the Democrats survive this political earthquake, we could end up like other one party disasters such as Mexico or China. We need a party that Eisenhower, Gerald Ford, Everett Dirkson, or John Jacob Rhodes (not to mention half of America) would feel comfortable in.

The Deuce said...

I do think the GOPe hates Cruz, or did. They're starting to turn to him out of desperation now that they've exhausted all other options to stop Trump, just as I expect most of them will eventually break down and support Trump as the election nears and he's the only option to stop Hillary.

I think it's clear at this point that they hate Trump more than Cruz though.

Crude said...

Deuce,

I agree that the GOPe hates Cruz. The problem is that I don't think they hate him because he opposes their policies.

He's just a tremendously unlikeable asshole.

I also don't think they're going to break down and support Trump, even if he wins the nomination outright. These are not people who are going to swallow opposition to immigration or, God forbid, unbridled free trade. Their hatred of Trump isn't that gosh, he's so rude. All that shit about 'He says mean things about women' sure didn't keep them from going after his wife.

Their problem with Trump isn't that they think he's unelectable. Their problem is they're terrified that he's actually electable.

Or so I see it.

planks,

I think I generally agree.